Making Partners with an Enemy
I have a different take on China than most people. Almost every other country in the world has worried about China for decades. It is China's population and its very large army that is feared. Many years ago, in our country, famous pilots, Eddie Richenbacher and Billy Mitchell both spoke of the future threat from China. "Beware the yellow hordes". Years later, during the Korean War, General MacArthur lost his job over the fear of China and his desire to destroy their capability to make war against us for a few decades. Having faced the Chinese soldiers in combat, I should also be fearful, but I'm betting on a different scenario.
China has been enjoying the benefits of capitalism and free trade for quite a while. Their industrial capability has made them one of the world's wealthiest nations. They are making the transition from being an agrarian society to an industrialized one. Despite their financial successes and their incredible economic growth rate, they will soon have to deal with a lot of difficult things. We can recognize these from our own history of having become an industrialized nation. China will not be able to avoid this next predictable evolutionary step.
They will need to get more workers out of the fields and into the cities where the work is. Just think of the difficulties they will have with their very own industrial revolution. Labor unions will develop along with many associated problems. Remember that even here in the US, there were incidents of beatings of workers in the streets. As China goes through that phase of their history, it will keep them very busy. They will therefore, not be spending much time thinking about war.
This phenomenon is referred to as the "4 to 1" problem. As you know, China has been controlling the birth of girl babies for years. That now gives them a plethora of males, many of them not working. These men must take care of their parents (2) and their grandparents (2) - it's their cultural duty. Without a job, that won't be easy. When they are faced with this difficulty, those men will take to the streets - there could be bloodshed. That will keep China busy for even longer. In the past, China believed that by having all of those males, they would always be able to field more soldiers than any other nation. This is why the world has always feared China - they have such a huge army. It's what they've always used to scare the world.
I may be naive, but the way I see it, China will not be fighting any future war. They would have to fight a defensive war, i.e. shooting down our satellites, rebuilding lost infrastructure, with loses of food and energy. Their large army would be destroyed promptly with modern weapons. They use the only tactic they know, to bunch up a lot of soldiers in one place to overwhelm the enemy. They would be easy targets for the modern weapons of today.
Then there is the most important fact of all. We here in the USA have a lot of leverage over China right now. We are its biggest trade partner and debtor. We have become entangled within our mutually beneficial trade practices. With a strong president, we could be very persuasive in almost any situation.
The United Nations has failed the world in its mission to maintain peace and discourage adventurous nations. They are dependent on member nations to volunteer small military groups to manage outbreaks. In recent wars, it hasn't worked and they have wasted much money and blood with this method. Eventually, those nations with a strong military have had to take over the effort. The UN’s humanitarian programs continue to be effective.
I've been thinking of an unusual idea that could be the answer to what we all long for - a world at peace. Maybe I'm too much of an idealist, but I'd be willing to bet on this plan. I believe it has a better chance of succeeding than any that the United Nations organization has attempted.
The idea is based on using America's strengths. Here in the USA, what we do better than anyone else is our technology and our diplomatic know-how. For us to establish a truly secure world I am suggesting an alliance with China. The two strongest economies with the strongest armies would be a firm deterrent to all. We would first negotiate a united purpose for our combined economies with reciprocal trade agreements. We would then negotiate a peace treaty with China, insuring both sides of non-aggression. I know that it may be difficult, but I believe that there is much to gain by putting the pieces together.
That very powerful bloc of “America and China” would be the "superpower" that will finally whittle the world's despots and dictators down to size. Radicals and fanatics, just like any other criminal, would be deterred from misbehaving and getting out of line.
Just think of what that could mean to the weakened European nations, to Israel, the Middle East and to all the other nations of the world. Peace - finally. It would then be only the potential war mongers who would be afraid. They would have to behave or face the world’s most massive military force – America and their great friend China.
